Good Day,
February is in the books and winter has returned to the prairies. More snow in March than most places have seen total for the winter season. I do think this is a good thing as moisture is always welcome. If you are calving 500 cows in the heart of the storm, please don’t send me a letter bomb to express your feelings. Weather is always very subjective as to it being good or bad for your specific operation. We have found in the last few days that all the producers must be moving snow as none of them have been calling us. I think that is in part that we don’t have any good news. Yellow peas have taken a bit of an uptick again due to India coming back to the table for some more peas. This has helped hold new crop pea prices in the $10 range. I know it's not $14 but $10 peas budget out at least as good as any other commodity. We have buyers looking with AoG clauses on their contracts. Contact one of us if interested. Old crop his hoovering closer to $12 picked up. It does not appear there are many Yellow Peas that remain unsold, however it does not seem the lack of supply is going to translate into a price squeeze. Whatever doesn’t get picked up by India will likely remain in the bin until new crop as most processors are willing to wait for August. Barley is still taking it on the chin. There seems to be no life price wise or volume wise. I know it is a broken record but CORN is hanging over the whole market. The possibility of a weather rebound for barley has been reduced significantly with all the snow. Most areas should have moisture to get a good start. This means with modern agriculture methods we only need 3 inches more for a decent crop. There are still good sized lots of barley available in bins across the prairies. Come July there will not be homes for it all unless some country comes shopping soon. The milling oat market has gone quiet. It sounds like most mills have adequate coverage on new crop acres bought up, and old crop is not needed. The feed oat bid has dropped to $4.40 (or less) delivered to most feeders. Anyone waiting for $5.00 off farm will be waiting for the foreseeable future. Wheat is another commodity taking it on the chin. We are hearing some producers tell us that their local elevators have the odd special worth selling into, otherwise the feed market is closer to $7.25/bus with very light demand. Brown flax has some demand pushed out into the summer months for movement in the $14.50-15.50/bus FOB depending on location and quality. We have seen prices on new crop lentils slowly falling. For example, in the first week of March we were seeing NC red lentils closer to $0.35/lbs but on the 8th pricing had sunk closer to $0.31/lbs with AoG. Specialty crops like Yellow Mustard have seen their pricing lose $0.40/lbs since September with prices in the $0.50-0.55/lbs range picked up. In previous years we have had no issues getting strong bids on heated canola, however, this year seems to be the exception. We have some interest in all conditions but the market is far softer than it has been anytime in the last 5 years. Let us know what you have with moisture, volume, and a good sample rolled out. Sitting on your heated canola waiting for the market to turn around is not a good way to fix the problem. The quality certainly won’t get better and blending is always a risky way to fix the problem. The first loss is almost always the best one. So give us a call. It might be a good idea to start planning on whether to hold what you have left into new crop or come up with a marketing plan to make sure you have the bin space come fall. With road restrictions either on or just around the corner and low demand on feed grains it may not be the easiest time to get your grain moving between now and seeding. If you are sitting on a big percentage, maybe you should do some shopping and get a plan for a few loads to move each month between now and August. These are my thoughts on what we are seeing take place in the markets. I apologize we can’t give a rosier outlook but give one of us a call and talk about what you need to have happen and maybe we can make something work for you. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca
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Good Day,
Well this last month just proves that I know absolutely nothing about the grain markets. Have been brokering for 18 years, grew grain for 35 years before that and no smarter than anyone else. You would think with the Dow and the S&P still climbing that the grain markets would show some stability. Myself and other people in the industry felt that $5.00 for feed barley on farm would likely be the bottom. Wrong again. We are seeing bids of $4.65 and I almost feel certain that we will see $4.50. This will not be good news for barley acres. I would think it will push some cereal acres into oats as they are still at $4.25 to $4.50 picked up for new crop. It feels like this year will be a challenge to chart a profitable plan with prices for grains and inputs where they are. The moisture situation seems to be a real issue all across the prairies. Everyone we talk to is talking about it and I understand why. Not much snowfall and what has come hasn’t lasted with all these plus temperatures. +21 C in Maple Creek SK last week, that is nuts. The good news is that no crop has ever been lost in February but…. we are starting to see a bit of the buyer appreciation of the moisture and old crop price situation. This week in Alberta we saw new crop barley bids nearly $20.00/MT higher than old crop bids for the same area. A bit of information that might be relevant. Several of my customers have called in the last month and asked me about Harvest Grain Marketing. This company is in no way associated with Quality Grain Marketing. As far as dealing with them my thoughts are that if you want to deal with someone who would work, very briefly, with a company then steal all of that company's contacts and leave to start a competitor odds are there will be issues and anything that goes wrong is one you. We have some demand for Old Crop Rye. Seeing $8.00 picked up based on 2 CW specs, slight premium for open pollinated with +85% germ. New crop Yellow Peas we are seeing bids of $9.75 picked up in SW MB and SE Sask. Will be interesting to see where this goes over the next couple months. Milling oats have been filling up quickly with movement now showing Oct-December for $4.30-4.60 picked up western MB. Across AB/MB/SK we are seeing feed bids be pushed further into spring as buyers are happy with their current coverage. Reverting back to new crop barley seeing stronger bids than old crop we traded $6.05 picked up Crossfield AB for Aug/Sept movement and are currently seeing $5.70 picked up in the same area for Feb/Mar movement. Just a quick reminder. If you have canola in bins as of right now it seems that this spring weather in January is causing another round of quality issues. Please check your bins, pull a load, and get it tested. If you see any issues let one of us know and we will help you out with pricing. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Well, I just put 2024 in the heading for this newsletter. It makes me wonder what changes we will see in the grain industry this year. Last year we went from good strong prices in the winter to much lower prices at harvest. Unfortunately, the trend has continued. We are $20/MT down on feed barley from the harvest prices. This is unusual as we normally get a bit of a bump as winter progresses. So far this January it hasn’t played out that way. Still struggling with US corn moving into Alberta by rail and also by truck into eastern SK and MB. We would see even lower corn prices in MB if there was more truck movement available. Oats have also followed the trend down with many of our buyers covered till April or even June. We have had some buyers in the market at $5.00 picked up for 2 CW milling quality in eastern SK or the very west edge of MB. The spread to feed oats isn’t as big as some years. We have bids in the $4.10 to $4.25 range in the same area. I should maybe take this time to address my pricing. I work out of Brandon. Most of my customers are in MB and eastern SK so that is why I lean hard on those areas when quoting prices. Please forgive me for this. Pulses are the one thing that is holding value. Good bids on both red lentils around $0.37/lbs and green lentils $0.70. We saw a great run up on yellow peas just before Christmas. Topped out at $14.00 in AB, $13.50 in SK and $13.00 in MB. Prices have cooled since then ($11.50 western MB), but I think we have moved a big chunk of the yellows for this crop. This will likely keep prices from dropping too low. So far we haven’t seen the price bump in December translate into better new crop bids to any degree. Green peas are still strong ($17.00) with maples ($24.00) and chickpeas (low 0.50s) holding firm too. I know I sound like a broken record but please keep an eye on your bins. If you haven’t pulled 10% of the bin volume out of them and confirm that all is as it should be. Please do. We have seen many times the first load comes out and is tough, heated or has bugs. This isn’t just in canola either. Rye, malt barley and oats have been a problem. It is likely a good thing that so many yellow peas are moving December through Jan so that we won’t have near the issues this year as has shown up in peas some years. Since the prices for all commodities are lower than they have been for a few years this might be a good time to consider shopping for new crop prices. We are very happy to help you with that. If you would like us to help, just call, Tx or email one of our Brokers and let him know what you are considering growing. It is good to let us know the variety, if spraying with a desiccant at harvest, how many acres, what timeframe you would like for movement and if you require an Act of God clause. This is usually only available on pulse crops commonly at 10 bushels/acre (negotiable). That is about it for this month. Keep checking our weekly price updates and until next month stay safe. Don’t hesitate to call if you have questions or comments. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Well, 2023 is almost over. It has been an interesting year in grain markets. We have seen extremely dramatic price corrections from Jan 2, 2023 to today (Dec 6, 2023). Every commodity has moved lower. With some like barley leading the charge with a 35% reduction. These changes are making it harder for producers to plan for next year. I am sure it is very tempting to kick your rotation to the curb and just grow canola and wheat. It is your farm but I am not sure that is the best long-term plan. We can help you with new crop price discovery just the same as every year. To complicate this even further take a look at the crazy weather we have had this fall. Here in Brandon, we had significant snow on Oct the 27 th. And tomorrow Dec the 6 th it will be plus 7 degrees. This shortens the winter but is not adding to moisture reserves or giving any winter crops protection from the cold that I am sure will be coming sooner than later. If anyone has the time or inclination it would be great if you could hit reply and let us know what your moisture conditions are like. I would like to mention a disturbing trend that we are seeing this fall. Harvest conditions have contributed to a much larger amount of spoiled and heated grain than we normally see. I seem to get a call almost every day with someone having heated canola. Just to give you an idea of how large a problem this is here are some numbers. The crop year August 2022 to July 2023 we traded 1356 MT of heated canola. This year August to November we have already traded 1158 MT and we have another 300 MT in the works as the writing of this newsletter. This is just an example of how big a problem out of condition grain is going to be this year. We have been seeing crust on yellow peas, malt barley and wheat. If possible, remove the crust before you pull the first load. If that crust gets into the rest of the bin, you could have feed grain. One trick that I heard that makes sense to help with this. If you want to be sure you have pulled enough grain out to check quality just crumple up 3 or 4 pieces of paper, throw them on the top of the bin toward the sides and when you pull all the paper out the bottom you know you have made a good job of turning your bin. It will be a year where it will be more effort to make sure your grain stays in the best possible condition. But worth it. We still are seeing decent bids for yellow peas. $10.50 in Western MB and Eastern SK. Some better bids out in Alberta as well. Feed barley is $5.60 ish in MB but not much stronger into SK and AB. We have heard but do not have actual data to prove it but 75% of the cattle on feed in feedlot alley in AB are eating corn this year. As you might guess it is largely coming from the US. This issue will hang over the feed complex for the rest of this crop year unless something dramatically different comes along to change things. This is good for the feeders which in the long term will help stabilize the feeding industry in western Canada. You can only go on feeding $9 barley and stay in business for so long. That is about it for this issue of the newsletter. If you have any questions or comments don’t be afraid to reply. We would love to hear your thoughts. Till 2024 have a good holiday season and stay safe. From the Quality Grain team Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Right now I should be thinking about Christmas as the snow is flying here in Brandon. I am not ready for Christmas or winter for that matter. If the forecast is right, we will have plus temps all next week so good-bye snow. That is fine with this broker. It seems that the only thing I talk about is how volatile the markets are. That hasn’t changed which isn’t a surprise considering all the things going on in the world, politically and economically. And then we have the Gaza war thrown in for interest. So enough of that. We have had a busy month in October. Trading grain was uneven but the month as a whole a decent amount of grain was contracted. Prices aren’t much different on average from beginning to end of the month. Feed grains such as corn and barley trended down (corn is under $7.00 picked up and barley is 5.75/bus - location dependent, peas in SW MB hit as high as $11.00/bus picked up but in the past couple weeks have come down closer to $10.50/bus. Feed wheat is just over $8.00/bus, and milling oats seem to be holding $5.00-5.25/bus picked up depending on the area. As I write this it seems that producers are locking the bin door again. We are still seeing large quantities of corn in the feed market. If you want to see what it has done to markets take a look at the bids for ethanol corn into Minnedosa. There aren’t any bids until March. They are covered. Not a good sign if you are looking for a big price bump in any of the feed grains. We do have some homes for barley and yellow peas. If you need to move either by year end let us know and we will work on that. Sitting in our chairs looking at bids everyday we see trends farmers may miss. As mentioned earlier the Ethanol plants are booked solid until the end of March. We are seeing similar trends in Milling Oats and Yellow Peas. As time goes the bids keep getting pushed further out and closer to spring. This calls for some forward planning. If you are looking for January movement and cash flow locking in a few super b’s in the next couple weeks for January would be advised. This month we would like to reacquaint you with our Quality Grain Marketing Broker Team. Since I am here in Manitoba that is where I will start. Richard Chambers: Retired farmer from Boissevain MB. Lives in Brandon. Has worked with Quality Grain for 18 years as broker/marketer. Can be reached at richard@qualitygrain.ca or 204-761-8320. John Falk: Retired farmer from the Winkler area. Lives in Altona. Has been with Quality for 9 years as a broker. He is our corn guy. John@qualitygrain.ca or 204-362-0167 will reach him. Brent Lewis: Farms in the Minnedosa area. Worked with Viterra and Wilbur Ellis. Has been with Quality Grain for 2 years. Contact him at blewis@qualitygrain.ca or 204-868-8070. Johan Brand: Lives in the Cardale area. Works in the livestock industry currently. He can be reached on Facebook, or email at jojomasteronline@gmail, or 431-757-3385. Jeff Sigurdson: Lives in Winnipeg. Jeff has over 20 years of experience dealing in Soymeal and DDGs. If you are looking for either product, he is the man to talk to for pricing and freight. He can be reached at jeff@qualitygrain.ca or 204-205-0380. Richie Yaremko: Retired farmer from the Willowbrook area. Lives in Yorkton. Was a sales rep with Cargill for 17 years, followed by a farm market advisor for 7 years and Quality now for 8 years. He brings a great level of knowledge on both the buy and marketing side of the markets. Richie can be reached at richie@qualitygrain.ca or 306-620-9026. Robert Rusu: Retired farmer from the Avonlea area. Lives in Moose Jaw SK. Has been with Quality Grain for nearly 4 years. He is our Lentil and Chickpea guy. robert@qualitygrain.ca or 306-631-8204. Brent Warren: A former rancher in the Canora SK area. Currently living in Champion AB. Has been with Quality for just under two years. He is our freight and feedlot guy. Brent can be reached at brentw@qualitygrain.ca or 306-562-0419. Jason Thalheimer: Former oil patch directional driller, he left the patch to settle into a less nomadic lifestyle and decided to give learning the ropes on being a grain pusher a go. Jason works from his acreage just north of Okotoks AB. Give Jason a call for all your grain marketing needs and weekly price updates. He can be contacted at jason@qualitygrain.ca or 403-826-8650 Andrew Turner: Is the newest addition to the Quality team. Living at Three Hills AB, Andrew is our Organic Grain contact. Something we had very limited exposure with before, he is a welcomed addition to the group. If you have any Organic Grain or specialty crop products he is the guy to call. Andrew can be contacted at aturner@qualitygrain.ca or 587-287-8447 Reed McDonald: Owner of Quality Grain since 2019 is the man of many hats, not limited to - tech support, customer relations, bookkeeping, contracting, technology officer, logistics, and grain brokering. If you have any marketing needs, reach out to any of the brokers listed above. They are all great resources that would love to hear from you on your grain marketing needs. As always if you have any wants, needs, wishes or suggestions let us know. We'd love to hear from you guys. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend! Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca |
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